Gold expected to be contained by interest rates and strong dollar

Gold will average $1,745 an ounce in 2023, slightly below current prices, as high interest rates and a strong dollar reduce its appeal.

The gold price has fallen to about $1,770 an ounce from a high of $2,069.89 in March as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks increased interest rates rapidly in an effort to tame inflation.

The higher rates have turned real yields on U.S. 10-year treasuries positive in April for the first time in two years, making non-yielding gold less attractive.

They have also boosted the U.S. dollar to 20-year highs, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. The stronger dollar also attracts money from investors seeking a safe store of value, who might otherwise invest in gold.

The median forecasts from a survey of 35 analysts was for gold to average $1,770 an ounce in the July-September quarter, $1,750 in the fourth quarter and $1,745 in 2023.

That is a downgrade from a similar poll in May that predicted average prices of $1,875 in the third quarter and $1,762.50 in 2023.

Gold has averaged $1,854 an ounce so far this year.

“The U.S. dollar’s dominance and the rise in real U.S. bond yields are weighing on the mood in the gold market,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

He said that further price falls are possible but the “base case calls for a stabilisation around current levels”.

For silver, the poll forecast average prices of $20 an ounce in the third quarter, $20.06 in the fourth and $20.18 in 2023. That is down from the May poll’s projection of $22.50 for 2023.

Silver cost about $20 an ounce on Wednesday, down from a high of $26.94 in March and a significantly larger fall than gold’s. The silver price has averaged $22.66 so far in 2022.

Like gold, silver is often treated as a safe-haven asset, but it is more vulnerable to economic slowdowns because it is also used in industry, said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah.

“Physical demand could be held back by weaker manufacturing activity,” he said.